Were the recent fatalities in Iraq predictable?

I noted in my post of early March that one byproduct of the increased American numbers in northern/central Iraq would be a displacement of the violence southwards.

April has seen the highest number of British fatalities in Iraq since the original war fighting phase. I do not have enough detail to claim that the two events are definitely linked but it does show that the Multi-National Division South East (MNDSE) sector is far from secure and puts a huge question mark over the justification to reduce British troop number in the area.

If we are reducing troop numbers because of overstretch and public opposition to the war then fair enough, but to claim that we are doing so because the tactical situation has improved is looking increasingly less credible.